Who Is Responsible for Nepal's Political Crisis of September 12, 2025

 

Who Is Responsible for Nepal's Political Crisis
of September 12, 2025

Nepal is currently experiencing its most severe political upheaval since the 2006 pro-democracy movement that abolished the monarchy. The crisis erupted in early September 2025, triggered by a government-imposed ban on 26 social media platforms (including Facebook, X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok) on September 4, ostensibly to enforce new registration rules and combat "fake news, hate speech, and online fraud." However, the ban was widely perceived as an attempt to suppress growing online criticism of corruption and nepotism, particularly a viral #nepokids campaign highlighting the lavish lifestyles of politicians' children amid widespread youth unemployment (estimated at 12.6% officially, but higher when including informal sectors) and a per capita income of around $1,400 annually.

Protests, led primarily by Generation Z (Gen Z) youth and students, began peacefully but escalated into violence after clashes with police on September 8, resulting in at least 19-30 deaths and over 100 injuries. Demonstrators stormed and set fire to the federal parliament building in Kathmandu on September 9, along with government offices, politicians' homes (including Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli's residence), and media outlets like Kantipur Publications. In response, Oli—a four-time prime minister from the Communist Party of Nepal —resigned that day to "facilitate a constitutional solution," fleeing the country amid the chaos. The Nepali Army was deployed nationwide, imposing curfews, taking control of streets and Kathmandu's airport, and urging dialogue to restore order. As of September 12, President Ram Chandra Paudel is convening constitutional experts and inviting protesters for talks, while youth groups on platforms like Discord are debating an interim government led by former Chief Justice Sushila Karki, known for her anti-corruption stance and landmark rulings.

Earlier in 2025, pro-monarchy protests by the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) demanded restoring the Hindu monarchy under former King Gyanendra Shah, blaming the republican system for corruption and loss of national identity—though these have merged into the broader Gen Z unrest.

A Multifaceted Analysis

Assigning responsibility for Nepal's crisis is complex, as it stems from systemic failures rather than a single actor. Sources from international media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, The New York Times), Nepali outlets (e.g., Kathmandu Post), and social media discussions on X represent diverse viewpoints: Western media emphasize domestic governance failures, South Asian analysts highlight geopolitical influences from India and China, and local voices (including protesters) focus on elite corruption. Subjective biases exist—e.g., pro-monarchy groups blame communist parties, while left-leaning sources point to external interference—but the consensus across a broad distribution of sources is that entrenched political elites bear primary blame, exacerbated by economic woes and policy missteps. Below is a breakdown of key responsible parties and factors, substantiated by evidence.

1. The Government and Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli (Primary Domestic Culprit)

• Role in the Crisis: Oli's administration is directly blamed for the social media ban, seen as a desperate bid to silence anti-corruption campaigns. The ban backfired, igniting protests that exposed deeper grievances like nepotism (e.g., "nepo-kids" flaunting wealth on banned platforms) and scandals such as the Giri Bandhu Tea Estate land swap, ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Oli's history of authoritarian tendencies—dissolving parliament twice in 2021 amid internal party feuds—and failure to address youth unemployment fueled public rage. His resignation is viewed as too little, too late, with protesters accusing him of fleeing accountability.
• Evidence and Substantiation: Reuters and BBC reports detail how the ban on September 4 led to immediate youth mobilization, escalating after police fired on protesters on September 8, killing 19. Al Jazeera notes Oli's coalition with smaller parties like RPP (which later condemned the ban) collapsed under pressure. On X, users like @LogicalIndians and @thestanleyzone highlight corruption as the "core" issue, with Oli's CPN-UML party criticized for pragmatic conservatism masking graft. Human Rights Watch's 2025 report on Nepal underscores a "crisis of impunity," with political interference in corruption probes under Oli's watch. No full-term government since 2008 has tackled these issues, per South Asian Voices analysis.
• Counterviews: Some X posts (e.g., @MurshidNama) allege Indian orchestration to counter Oli's pro-China tilt (e.g., 12 BRI agreements in 2024), but mainstream sources like Britannica and Wikipedia attribute the unrest to domestic triggers, not foreign plots—though India's travel advisories and Modi's calls for peace indicate regional concern.

2. Major Political Parties and the Elite Class (Systemic Responsibility)

• Role in the Crisis: Nepal's "aging leaders" from parties like CPN-UML, Nepali Congress, and CPN-Maoist Centre have dominated politics since the 2008 republic transition, engaging in endless alliances and betrayals (e.g., 2024's coalition shifts involving Pushpa Kamal Dahal). This has paralyzed governance, leading to economic stagnation and corruption. Protesters target the "political elite" for nepotism, with families of leaders like Oli and Sher Bahadur Deuba enjoying privileges while 30 million Nepalis face poverty. The RPP's pro-monarchy wing is accused of exploiting the chaos for a royal comeback, potentially deepening divisions.
• Evidence and Substantiation: Al Jazeera and ABC News describe a "highly fragmented political scene" where no party governs alone, resulting in "lavish weddings" for elites' children amid public hardship. The New York Times reports on #nepokids trending pre-ban, symbolizing inequality. Wikipedia entries on the 2025 Gen Z protests and pro-monarchy movements note violence tied to RPP affiliates, with Oli accusing former King Gyanendra of inciting unrest. X discussions (e.g., @Zwelinzima1) emphasize that ideology (left-wing or otherwise) is irrelevant—"if you are corrupt, you become [the target] of all the people." Britannica links the crisis to post-2008 failures in building stable institutions.

3. Security Forces and the Army (Escalation Through Repression)

• Role in the Crisis: Police and army overreach turned peaceful protests violent, with live ammunition used on September 8, leading to deaths that inflamed the situation. The army's subsequent takeover (e.g., curfews, property seizures) is praised for restoring order but criticized as a "crisis management option" that sidesteps root causes.
• Evidence and Substantiation: BBC and NYT accounts detail army chief Ashok Raj Sigdel's statements accusing protesters of looting, while Al Jazeera reports over 3,200 arrests. Human Rights Watch criticizes impunity for security forces in past violations, mirroring the current clashes.

4. Geopolitical Influences (India, China, and External Actors)

• Role in the Crisis: Nepal's position between India and China amplifies internal woes. Oli's pro-China policies (e.g., BRI deals) irked India, which some allege fueled protests via "narrative manipulation" to regain influence. Pro-monarchy sentiments align with Indian BJP factions, per Al Jazeera. China is blamed for exporting "corruption models," while U.S. agencies like USAID are accused by Indian MPs of past meddling in Nepal's secular shift.
• Evidence and Substantiation: Al Jazeera warns of regional stakes, with Pakistan's elite concerned about parallels to Imran Khan's ouster. X posts like @MurshidNama claim India's "hidden hand" in amplifying the "Gen Z movement" to derail BRI, while @dea61aa4b6d0403 suggests Beijing's indirect role via Oli's policies. However, Reuters and Prof. S.D. Muni (via @timelinelatest on X) stress domestic factors, with geopolitics as a "spillover risk" rather than the cause. No conclusive evidence of direct foreign orchestration exists in balanced sources.

5. Youth Protesters and Opportunistic Elements (Shared or Aggravating Factors)

• Role in the Crisis: While Gen Z is credited with genuine anti-corruption fervor, some sources accuse "external forces" or party cadres of hijacking protests for violence (e.g., arson). No group has claimed the destruction, but it has deepened the trauma.
• Evidence and Substantiation: NYT quotes protesters like Ms. Pandey regretting the loss of control, while Kathmandu Post (via X) notes Discord debates on dialogue. Wikipedia mentions NGO Hami Nepal's role in initial organization, but blames "political party cadres" for escalation.

Potential Outcomes and Broader Implications

• Short-Term: An interim government under Sushila Karki is a popular demand among youth, but President Paudel must navigate party talks to avoid constitutional crisis. Army mediation could stabilize, but risks authoritarianism.
• Long-Term: The crisis highlights South Asia's fragile democracies (parallels to Bangladesh 2024 and Pakistan 2022). If unaddressed, it could boost pro-monarchy forces or lead to more unrest, affecting India-China dynamics and Nepal's economy (e.g., disruptions to Indian firms like Dabur).
• Lessons: As X user @Zwelinzima1 notes, corruption trumps ideology—elites must prioritize accountability to prevent recurrence. International calls (e.g., from PM Modi) urge restraint, but true resolution lies in inclusive reforms.

This analysis draws from a wide stakeholder spectrum to avoid bias, focusing on verifiable events. Nepal's future hinges on whether leaders heed the youth's call for systemic change.

Source Grok