Could a Similar Crisis Happen in India?

 
Could a Similar Crisis Happen in India?

India and Nepal share cultural, historical, and geographic ties—including an open 1,000-mile border allowing free movement—but their political and economic contexts differ significantly, making a direct replication of Nepal's crisis unlikely in the near term. However, underlying issues like youth discontent and corruption could fuel tensions if unaddressed. Here's a balanced analysis:

Similarities That Raise Concerns

  • Youth Frustration and Unemployment: Like Nepal, India faces a "youth bulge" with high unemployment among those under 25 (officially around 17-18%, but higher in urban areas per some estimates). Mass migration for jobs abroad is common, and social media amplifies grievances against perceived elite privilege (e.g., "nepo kids" in politics and Bollywood). Nepal's protests were fueled by TikTok and Reddit campaigns exposing politicians' lavish lifestyles; similar viral outrage could erupt in India over issues like exam paper leaks or job scams.
  • Corruption Perceptions: Both countries grapple with endemic corruption. Nepal's scandals (e.g., fake refugee schemes) mirror India's ongoing issues, such as electoral bonds controversies or cronyism allegations. If economic slowdowns worsen—India's GDP growth is projected at 6-7% for 2025 but unevenly distributed—this could spark protests, especially in border states like Bihar or Uttar Pradesh, where Nepali migrants and locals share socioeconomic challenges.
  • Regional Instability Spillover: Nepal's turmoil has already strained India's diplomacy, with returning migrants overwhelming border areas and potential security risks from armed rioters (some used rifles and grenades). Analysts note China could exploit the vacuum to expand influence in Kathmandu, indirectly pressuring India. Broader South Asian unrest (e.g., Bangladesh's 2024 uprising) has led to speculation about a "domino effect," with some social media discussions asking if India could be "next" due to similar youth-led digital activism.
Source : Grok

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