Is Modi Fear from Trump?

Is Modi Fear from Trump?

No, there is no credible evidence that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi fears U.S. President Donald Trump. The query appears to stem from recent political rhetoric and media speculation amid escalating U.S.-India trade tensions, particularly over Trump's imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian exports (25% for general trade imbalances and 25% as a penalty for India's purchases of Russian oil). However, reports and analyses indicate that Modi's approach is one of strategic caution, diplomatic maturity, and a commitment to India's national interests, rather than fear. Below, I'll break this down based on recent developments as of August 2025.

Background on the Modi-Trump Relationship

Modi and Trump have historically maintained a personal rapport, often described as a "bromance" due to shared populist styles and high-profile events like the 2019 "Howdy Modi" rally in Houston and the 2020 "Namaste Trump" event in Ahmedabad. Trump has repeatedly praised Modi as a "great leader" and "friend," while Modi has called Trump a "true friend" and emphasized the "mega partnership" between the world's oldest and largest democracies.

  • In early 2025, after Trump's inauguration, Modi was one of the first world leaders to visit the White House (February 13, 2025), where they discussed expanding trade to $500 billion by 2030, defense cooperation (including potential F-35 sales to India), and energy imports to address the U.S. trade deficit. Modi even adapted Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan to "Make India Great Again" (MIGA) during the joint press conference, highlighting mutual respect.
  • Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stated in November 2024 that India was "not nervous" about working with Trump, citing bipartisan U.S. support for India as a counterweight to China.

This positive foundation has been tested by Trump's "America First" policies, but Modi's responses show calculated independence, not fear.

Recent Tensions: Tariffs and Russian Oil

The core issue fueling speculation is Trump's August 2025 tariff hike, which he justified by accusing India of "profiting from the war in Ukraine" through its Russian oil imports (now 35-40% of India's total oil supply, up from 0.2% pre-2022). Trump and his advisers, like Peter Navarro, have called it "Modi's war," claiming India's $53 billion in Russian crude purchases (2024) fund Russia's military. Navarro argued that stopping these buys could end the Ukraine conflict and bring "immediate tariff relief."

  • Economic Impact on India: The tariffs affect $87 billion in annual U.S.-India trade, hitting sectors like textiles, gems, auto parts, shrimp, and spices. Estimates suggest up to 2 million jobs at risk and a 0.5% drag on India's GDP. Exporters are pivoting to markets in Russia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and South America, with one Indian shoe manufacturer declaring, "No one is going to surrender to blackmail."
  • India's Stance: Modi has vowed not to compromise on national interests, emphasizing "self-reliance" (Atmanirbhar Bharat) and energy security for 1.4 billion people. India argues the tariffs are "unfair" and ignores similar Russian oil dealings by China (Russia's top buyer) and the EU (which imports refined Russian fuel). Modi has proposed domestic tax cuts (e.g., simplifying GST and income tax rebates worth $20-32 billion) to cushion the blow, boosting consumption and growth.

Critics in India, like Congress leader Jairam Ramesh, have questioned "Why is Modi afraid?" citing Modi's silence on Trump. However, this overlooks Modi's actions:

  • India has not halted Russian oil imports, despite U.S. pressure.
  • Modi extended a duty exemption on U.S. cotton imports until December 2025 as a goodwill gesture but rejected broader concessions.
  • In response to Trump's claims of mediating an India-Pakistan ceasefire in May 2025, Modi publicly denied U.S. involvement, asserting it was bilateral.

Reports of Modi Avoiding Trump: Fact or Propaganda?

A German newspaper (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, FAZ) reported on August 27, 2025, that Modi avoided four calls from Trump in recent weeks amid the tariff row, citing sources and suggesting it reflected "the depth of his anger, but also his caution." A Japanese outlet (Nikkei Asia) echoed this, noting it heightened Trump's "frustration."

  • Context and Skepticism: These reports may be exaggerated or propagandistic to portray Modi as ego-driven. Modi has not publicly mentioned Trump directly, even under domestic pressure, demonstrating restraint. Instead, he's focused on multilateral outreach:
    • Attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China (August 26-27, 2025), his first visit there since 2018, signaling a thaw with Beijing amid U.S. tensions. This includes potential talks with Xi Jinping and Pakistan's leadership, prioritizing economic stability over rivalry.
    • Planning visits to Russia and Brazil, strengthening BRICS ties.
  • Analysts like Ashok Malik (former Modi adviser) note this as "strategic autonomy," not fear—India is diversifying to avoid over-reliance on the U.S. Trump himself has shown frustration, but Modi's refusal to engage directly avoids giving Trump a public "win" (e.g., Trump previously claimed credit for the India-Pakistan truce, embarrassing Modi).

X (formerly Twitter) discussions reflect polarized views: Opposition voices amplify "fear" narratives for political gain, while supporters praise Modi's firmness. For instance, users like @ArvindKejriwal accused Modi of "bowing" to Trump, but this ignores India's non-compliance on oil.

Why It Looks Like Fear—but Isn't

  • Domestic Politics: Modi's silence shields his "strongman" image from tariff backlash, especially ahead of state elections (e.g., Bihar). Opposition parties like Congress exploit this, but Modi's approval rating remains above 75%.
  • Geopolitical Calculus: India values U.S. ties for countering China (via Quad) but won't sacrifice Russia relations (70% of India's defense imports are Russian). Jaishankar has reiterated that bilateral ties "stand on their own merit" and aren't viewed "through the prism of a third country."
  • Historical Precedent: During Trump's first term (2017-2021), similar tariff wars occurred, but relations rebounded. Modi navigated them without capitulation, much like Indira Gandhi's defiance of U.S. pressure in 1971.

In summary, Modi's strategy is one of quiet defiance and diversification, not fear. As strategist Brahma Chellaney noted, engaging Trump's "mercurial" style requires tact, but sulking isn't it—yet Modi's moves (e.g., China pivot) show proactive statecraft. If tensions ease, it could be through backchannel talks; if not, India is preparing for a multipolar world where it's less beholden to U.S. dictates.

Source: Grok

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