Truth Behind Modi and Trump Deal on February 2, 2026

 

Truth Behind Modi and Trump Deal on
February 2, 2026

US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India on February 2, 2026, via a post on Truth Social, following a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the announcement, Trump stated that, out of "friendship and respect" for Modi and at his request, the US would immediately reduce its reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. He further claimed that India had agreed to several major concessions in return: reducing its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US goods to zero, stopping purchases of Russian oil, increasing buys of US energy, technology, agricultural products, coal, and other items to a "much higher level," and committing to over $500 billion in US products overall.

This came after a period of tension in US-India trade relations. In mid-2025, Trump had imposed 25% tariffs on India, later doubling them to 50% in August, citing India's continued purchases of discounted Russian oil amid the Ukraine conflict and broader trade imbalances. The reversal to 18% represents a significant concession from the US side, potentially benefiting Indian exporters in sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT services.

However, the "truth" behind the deal appears more nuanced than Trump's sweeping claims, with evidence of exaggeration and discrepancies based on Indian responses, expert analysis, and public discourse. Here's a breakdown:

Indian Side's Response and Official Silence

• Prime Minister Modi acknowledged the call with Trump and thanked him for the tariff reduction but did not endorse or detail the broader commitments Trump described, such as zero tariffs on US goods, halting Russian oil imports, or the $500 billion purchase figure. Modi's public statements on X (formerly Twitter) around this time do not mention the deal at all, focusing instead on domestic governance and cultural events.
• India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and commerce ministry have not issued a detailed joint statement or press release confirming Trump's full claims as of February 4, 2026. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal hailed the deal as a "landmark" that would boost opportunities for Indians but avoided specifics on concessions like oil or zero tariffs.
• Indian officials and sources have pushed back on characterizations of the negotiations. For instance, Delhi denied US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's earlier claim that the deal stalled because Modi "didn't call" Trump, calling it "not accurate." This suggests India maintained leverage, possibly influenced by its recent free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU, which may have prompted the US to reconsider its hardline stance.

Discrepancies in Trump's Claims

• Zero Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers: Trump asserted India would reduce barriers to "ZERO." Indian economists and opposition figures have called this "fanciful" or unconfirmed, noting that Modi's statements avoid any such pledge. Experts suggest India may lower duties to single digits on select US goods but retain protections in sensitive areas like agriculture and dairy to safeguard domestic farmers.
• Stopping Russian Oil Purchases: Trump claimed Modi agreed to halt buys from Russia. While India's Russian oil imports have declined recently (due to market factors and US pressure), there is no official Indian confirmation of a complete stop. India has historically defended these purchases as essential for energy security and affordability, and analysts note this as a potential pretext for US tariffs rather than a firm deal point.
• $500 Billion in US Purchases: Described by Trump as commitments to "BUY AMERICAN" in energy, tech, agriculture, and more. Indian sources clarify this as a multi-year aspiration (around $100 billion annually), up from current ~$55 billion, potentially through deals in petroleum, defense, and aircraft—but not a binding immediate pledge. Economists label the figure "a stretch" and note Modi's post did not use the word "deal."

Broader Context and Expert Views

• Negotiation Dynamics: Reports indicate the deal was sealed quickly (in about 21 days) with input from US envoy Sergio Gor, emphasizing Trump-Modi rapport. However, India held firm on "red lines" like strategic autonomy, refusing preconditions such as ditching Russian arms/energy or fully opening agriculture. Analysts like Ian Bremmer suggest India leveraged its position amid US urgency to counter China, while some Indian commentators argue Modi "outsmarted" Trump in the "art of the deal."
• Public and Political Reaction: In India, opposition leaders like Jairam Ramesh accused Modi of "complete surrender" via "hugplomacy," while supporters view it as a win for exports. On X, discussions highlight Trump's history of exaggerated claims (e.g., on ceasefires between India and Pakistan) and urge waiting for the full agreement text.
• Why the Exaggerations? Trump has a pattern of inflating trade wins for domestic appeal, as seen in past deals. Fact-checks rate his announcement as "mostly true" on the tariff cut but "mixed" on concessions, with the mismatch between US and Indian statements fueling skepticism.

In summary, the core of the deal—a US tariff reduction to 18%—is confirmed and mutually acknowledged, marking a reset after months of friction. But Trump's portrayal of India's commitments seems overstated, likely for political optics. The full truth will emerge once both sides release a joint statement or detailed agreement, expected soon. This framework could enhance bilateral trade (currently $200 billion annually) but won't drastically alter India's multipolar foreign policy, including ties with Russia.