Who will Win Bihar Election?

 Who will Win Bihar Election?

The 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election, involving all 243 constituencies, is scheduled for late October or early November, with the Election Commission expected to announce the dates around October 6. No definitive winner can be declared yet, as outcomes depend on final voter turnout, campaign dynamics, and potential shifts from the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which has finalized at 7.42 crore voters after removing ineligible entries. However, multiple opinion polls and surveys indicate a slight to clear edge for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], and smaller allies like Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). This could secure them a majority (122+ seats), potentially retaining Chief Minister Nitish Kumar or positioning BJP for a stronger role. The opposition Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led INDIA bloc with Congress and Left parties) trails but could close the gap via youth and Muslim-Yadav consolidation, while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party emerges as a potential spoiler, drawing 8-11% vote share from disaffected voters.

Key factors favoring NDA include strong women voter support (via schemes like those under Nitish Kumar), upper-caste and OBC consolidation, and BJP's projected gains (e.g., from 74 seats in 2020 to 64-81). JD(U) may drop but retains EBC loyalty. Polls like Times Now-JVC project NDA at 136 seats vs. Mahagathbandhan's 75, while SPICK Media sees NDA at 158. One outlier (Lokpoll) gives Mahagathbandhan a narrow lead (118-126 seats), but most favor NDA.

Alliance/Party

Projected Seats (Range from Polls)

Key Voter Base

NDA (BJP + JD(U) + allies)

125-158

Women, upper castes, EBCs, some OBCs

Mahagathbandhan (RJD + Congress + Left)

66-126

Muslims, Yadavs, youth (unemployment focus)

Jan Suraaj (Prashant Kishor)

0-30

Youth, upper castes, ex-Left supporters

Others/Independents

2-13

Local factors

Tejashwi Yadav leads CM preference polls (35-40%), followed by Nitish Kumar (15-18%) and Prashant Kishor (17-23%), but NDA's alliance math could override this. Issues like unemployment, migration, and SIR controversies (opposition alleges disenfranchisement) dominate, with NDA leveraging welfare and development. X discussions reflect divided sentiment, with some predicting NDA sweeps and others Mahagathbandhan upsets, but polls tilt toward NDA retention.

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