Who will Win Bihar Election?
Who will Win Bihar Election?
The 2025
Bihar Legislative Assembly election, involving all 243 constituencies, is
scheduled for late October or early November, with the Election Commission
expected to announce the dates around October 6. No definitive winner can be
declared yet, as outcomes depend on final voter turnout, campaign dynamics, and
potential shifts from the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral
rolls, which has finalized at 7.42 crore voters after removing ineligible
entries. However, multiple opinion polls and surveys indicate a slight to clear
edge for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], and smaller allies
like Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). This could secure them a majority (122+
seats), potentially retaining Chief Minister Nitish Kumar or positioning BJP
for a stronger role. The opposition Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led INDIA bloc with
Congress and Left parties) trails but could close the gap via youth and
Muslim-Yadav consolidation, while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party emerges as
a potential spoiler, drawing 8-11% vote share from disaffected voters.
Key
factors favoring NDA include strong women voter support (via schemes like those
under Nitish Kumar), upper-caste and OBC consolidation, and BJP's projected
gains (e.g., from 74 seats in 2020 to 64-81). JD(U) may drop but retains EBC
loyalty. Polls like Times Now-JVC project NDA at 136 seats vs.
Mahagathbandhan's 75, while SPICK Media sees NDA at 158. One outlier (Lokpoll)
gives Mahagathbandhan a narrow lead (118-126 seats), but most favor NDA.
Alliance/Party |
Projected Seats (Range from Polls) |
Key Voter Base |
NDA
(BJP + JD(U) + allies) |
125-158 |
Women,
upper castes, EBCs, some OBCs |
Mahagathbandhan
(RJD + Congress + Left) |
66-126 |
Muslims,
Yadavs, youth (unemployment focus) |
Jan
Suraaj (Prashant Kishor) |
0-30 |
Youth,
upper castes, ex-Left supporters |
Others/Independents |
2-13 |
Local
factors |
Tejashwi
Yadav leads CM preference polls (35-40%), followed by Nitish Kumar (15-18%) and
Prashant Kishor (17-23%), but NDA's alliance math could override this. Issues
like unemployment, migration, and SIR controversies (opposition alleges
disenfranchisement) dominate, with NDA leveraging welfare and development. X
discussions reflect divided sentiment, with some predicting NDA sweeps and
others Mahagathbandhan upsets, but polls tilt toward NDA retention.
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